David Archibald is one of my favorite scientists on the planet. He has continued to find original takes on the climate puzzle typically relating to the Solar effects. He has gone out on a limb to call for a significant temperature fall during Solar cycle 24. Part of the prediction is that this current cycle is expected to be cooling and long which go together. The average cycle length of 11.2 years gets stretched when the cycle is weak. Cycle 23 which was about 13 years led to the current cooler cycle. A 17 year cycle should be really cold if all turns out as expected. All the global warming crowd is aware of the trend and the current climate numbers and have become desparate to implement all their pet projects before the world wakes up to a continuing cold period. It would be like trying to sell a ticket to the 7th game of the world series the day after the event. The odds are not too great.- Kirt
Guest post by David Archibald
My papers and those of Jan-Erik Solheim et al predict a significant cooling over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. Solheim’s model predicts that Solar Cycle 24, for the northern hemisphere, will be 0.9º C cooler than Solar Cycle 23. It hasn’t cooled yet and we are three and a half years into the current cycle. The longer the temperature stays where it is, the more cooling has to come over the rest of the cycle for the predicted average reduction to occur.
So when will it cool? As Nir Shaviv and others have noted, the biggest calorimeter on the plant is the oceans. My work on sea level response to solar activity (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/03/quantifying-sea-level-fall/) found that the breakover between sea level rise and sea level fall is a sunspot amplitude of 40:
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