With predictions of the end of the world which failed to materialize, as well as other “catastrophisms” from those who have the obligation to give us a fair, unbiased view of what we can expect from the future, I have decided to take on the task of telling the world what we can expect based on an alternative view of science than has been presented in the main stream media. No, I will not blame mankind, nor will I blame cows. I will neither fault the oceans nor the sea ice. Glaciers may have a part but nothing like what you have been hearing. It is the Sun that will be the focus of my predictions with all its vagaries. One caveat is that given the doomsayers of alarmist climate change, there will be an impact from a small group that will affect mankind. This group will include all those who have concocted and proliferated the scam of Dangerous Alarmist Warming Globally or DAWG. This is an acronym synonymous with a colloquial term for a dog, and a dog of a hypothesis it certainly is. Now I must caution the readers to not make the assumption that is a derogatory statement. I really love my dog, Marley, a yellow lab that was named just prior to the release of the book, Marley and Me. It should be noted that she is not a believer in DAWG.
All kidding aside, this is a serious prediction of the state of the climate and how man will handle it. Aside from being entirely natural, it will not be a pleasant experience.
Beginning at the present time, with the Sun heading into a cool, low activity cycle based on the solar inertial motion (SIM) we can expect a minimum of 25 years with progressive cooling interrupted by the occasional ENSO event. If ENSO events do occur there may be a muting of the cooling due to the “heat shock” from the El Nino warming. Not having the abilities of Theodore Lanscheidt, I will not predict the likely occurrence of ENSO events, although the stimulus of such events should be similar to those in the past 221 years. Part of my premise is the repeat of the last 221year solar cycle that has driven our climate over the past 420 years, at least.
The basic climate prediction is based on the repeat of the past in 221 year increments since 1600AD. That would indicate that we would see a cool period extending to about 2045 with a Dalton style minimum peaking around 2035. The recovery from that will be brief with a Maunder style minimum following. Further, Sporer and Wolf like minimums will follow in close succession. In total, the cooling cycles will cover the next 95 to 100 years. It would be expected that the temperatures would fall in the neighborhood of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius cooling on average.
The majority of the cooling will be the result of additional clouds from augmented solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR’s) hitting our solar system based on Svenmark’s hypothesis relating to reduced magnetic field intensity from the Sun. Contrary to the DAWG hypothesis, the additional percentage of water vapor in the atmosphere will not add to warming but will further shield us from the already diminished solar radiation from an inactive Sun in a negative feedback.
As a result of these changes we can expect a number of climate related effects to our planet that will be more observable than any of the 20th century warming. The obvious change will be a cooling and resultant colder winters to be accompanied by intensive snow activity progressing to the southern United States and similar latitudes across the planet. Winters will have snow persisting into July in the northern US. It was reported this morning that snow piles are still 10ft tall in a shopping plaza in Connecticut on this date May 22, 2011. It is not pretty but is solid ice. Could this be the beginning of the next glaciation? We’ll have to call it the Kohl’s Glaciation after the store adjacent to the parking lot.
Arctic sea Ice, which is already exhibiting a growing multi-year ice extent will be increasing almost exponentially within 25 years with a slowing beginning around 30 to 35 years from present. As sea ice begins to take over Alaska and Canada, as well as similar latitudes globally, glaciation will begin. Snow cover will persist in these regions year round and not just permafrost. There will be perennial ice developing on land. After a short respite, the ice accumulation will continue to grow until at least 2110 and maybe beyond.
For the areas inhabited by the vast majority of mankind, growing seasons will become shorter limiting the types of food crops that may be grown. One may expect that cold weather favorites like turnips may become a staple for our dinner tables. I like turnips.
Snow depth accumulations will continue to increase straining the snow budgets of local municipalities and states, especially in the mid-states US and north. Where to put the snow will tax the ingenuity of snow removal experts.
In keeping with the cooling, the world will need huge quantities of inexpensive energy. The idea of low CO2 fuels will be of no consequence when freezing to death is the only other option and the world will be grateful for any warming. The problem is that there will likely be insufficient energy at any cost if the current fad of DAWG inspired regulations continue. The USA is smart to have avoided committing to mandated CO2 reductions. The problem is that 10 northeastern states and California (as well as some others) have entered into a cap and trade system of energy taxation and a commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by in excess of 80% by 2050. This is technically impossible without creating generation difficulties and electrical supply interruptions. This will contribute to a higher mortality rate with exceptions for highly creative individuals who use unusual methods to retain and produce heat. Forests will be cut down and smoke will permeate the atmosphere from uncontrolled home fires. This will probably lead to more homes consumed by fires from poorly maintained wood burning stoves with residents unable to afford proper precautions like flue maintenance. Costs associated with increasing cold will skyrocket with businesses unable to afford the costs. The same will be true of the majority of the population.
Food shortages will be global, exacerbated by ethanol production that will not be curtailed in time to avoid the worst consequences. Combined with shorter growing seasons and limited latitudes where crops may grow the situation will quickly become critical. Starvation may not only affect the poorest but the wealthy as well. You cannot underestimate the commitment of a starving man intent on feeding his family. No amount of security will be able to protect food storage areas. Oddly enough, areas like Africa and South America may actually be better off than some but should not depend on handouts from the large developed countries. Their self-sufficiency may be their salvation.
Lastly, SLR will turn into Sea Level Lowering (SLL). As has been noted by some of the more astute scientists, SLR is mostly thermosteric, being a function of rising ocean temperatures. In the current Ocean Heat Content (OHC) charts there has been a temporary stasis of the level being measured. As the temperatures continue to drop, so will OHC as will the sea level introducing a new phrase, SLL. SLL will not be catastrophic and entirely beneficial. Although storms may increase as a result of the colder weather, there will be a benefit in the oxygenation of the oceans due to the storm agitation. Additionally, lower sea level will mean storm surges will have a reduced impact on coastal development. See, it is not all bad.
Although I suspect this is a likely scenario for the future, we could minimize the worst effects. We should stop the expenditure of $Billions on DAWG-gy programs. We should put the DAWG supporters on un-employment including the scientists, politicians and the leaders of so-called environmental organizations that complete the money loop. We should develop all sources of energy regardless of side effects. Technology should concentrate on reducing any adverse consequences. Cold hardy, short growing season crops need to be developed. Ice transport vehicles could operate on minimal energy given the low resistance to forward motion.
If this sounds like catastrophic global warming, you may be correct. The difference is that cold is a lot more severe than the warmest weather imaginable. Will this scenario happen? Let me know when you get to where I am going. It should be an interesting tale.